CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Mon 26 Sep 06:00 - Tue 27 Sep 06:00 2005 (UTC)
ISSUED: 25 Sep 22:23 (UTC)
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

SYNOPSIS

Monday at 06 UTC ... an elongated trough is forecast over the Benelux, a weak trough over eastern Iberia and weak flow over central and southern Europe. A fast-moving low pressure system to the northwest of Norway is expected to move quickly northeastward. A large anticyclone is centered over western Russia.

DISCUSSION

...western Black Sea area...
On the southern flank of the Russian anticyclone, flow is weak. Over the western Black sea, up to near 1000 J/kg of 500m-MLCAPE is present along with near zero CIN. As a result scattered storms take place that are expected to organise into a barotropic low. High convective precipiation amounts are forecast near the system. These may cause problems along the coasts of Romania, Bulgaria and western Turkey. Additionally, a few waterspouts may occur.

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